Multinacionales extractivistas, vendedoras de ilusiones económicas: El caso de MINESA en el páramo de Santurbán

Columnistas Opinión

Por: Álvaro Pardo


Sobredimensionar las reservas probables / probadas de minerales en un proyecto extractivo y sobrevalorar los ingresos por impuestos y regalías que se generarían a favor del Estado por su explotación, hacen parte de las estrategias de las compañías del sector para presionar al alza la cotización de sus acciones en las bolsas de valores, lograr el respaldo irrestricto de los gobiernos y buscar el apoyo de comunidades, cada vez más opuestas al desarrollo de la minería en sus territorios.

Este ha sido el común denominador observado entre empresas y gremios que impulsan, por ejemplo, el desarrollo de crudos no convencionales mediante la técnica del fracking, el proyecto Quebradona por la compañía AngloGold Ashanti en Jericó (Antioquia), y por supuesto, la empresa MINESA S.A., que pocas muestras ha dado de manejo transparente de su información.

MINESA S.A. ha dicho en varios medios que los impuestos y regalías que le llegarían por el desarrollo del proyecto Soto Norte al Gobierno ascienden a US2.500 millones de dólares en 21 años de operación en el ecosistema del páramo de Santurbán.

Para determinar aspectos sustanciales de un proyecto minero o de petróleos, tales como reservas estimadas o probadas, calidad del mineral, tenor, niveles y costos de extracción, precios de los minerales, ingresos operativos y rentabilidad del proyecto, se acude en muchos casos a la bola de cristal.

Las empresas mineras y sus gremios anticipan estas cifras en los estudios de Impacto ambiental, en sus páginas web y en los publirreportajes a los medios de comunicación prepagos, y los gobiernos, expertos, empresarios, otros gremios de la economía, cámaras de comercio y periodistas las toman como ciertas y empiezan a hacer fiestas y pronósticos de un mejor mañana para todos.

Si eso fuera así, comunidades de la Guajira, Cesar, Córdoba, Chocó y el nordeste antioqueño vivirían como suizos o mejor.

Cálculo de las reservas estimadas / probadas

Las compañías mineras y petroleras cuentan con diversas técnicas para calcular las reservas mineras en un yacimiento, comenzando por la sísmica tridimensional, la perforación de pozos exploratorios y la extracción de corazones (pedazos de roca del área de interés) entre otros, para inferir el volumen de oro, plata y cobre, como en el caso de MINESA, su calidad y tenor, y cuando obtienen información sobre la dimensión y geometría del yacimiento, avanzan en el cálculo de las reservas estimadas y probadas.

Si bien las compañías deben tratar de vencer la incertidumbre y los riesgos para evaluar la viabilidad del negocio, no logran vencer los riesgos de las inferencias y por tanto la certeza de sus proyecciones. Ejemplos hay en el mundo de compañías que inflaron sus reservas para atraer ingenuos y luego, cuando debieron sincerar sus cifras, acuden a un portafolio de excusas, entre ellas, declararse en quiebra.

Bien lo dicen los mismos mineros o petroleros: “solamente se sabe cuántas reservas probadas hay en un yacimiento cuando se extrae el último barril de crudo, la última tonelada de carbón o la última onza de oro”.

El otro asunto es la veracidad de la información que las compañías entregan a la autoridad minera. Sí, como señaló Santiago Ángel Urdinola, presidente de Minesa, se trata de manipular la información para que Bogotá crea que todo este bien, así el páramo de Santurbán se este incendiando, imagínense lo que puede decir sobre reservas, impuestos y regalías.

Precios futuros de los minerales o el petróleo

¿Pronosticó alguien en diciembre de 2019, que el coronavirus iba a paralizar en el 2020 la economía global y a obligar a millones de familias del planeta a confinarse para hacer frente a esa pandemia? Nadie.

¿Pronosticó alguien que los precios del crudo WTI, que estaban a US65 por barril en diciembre, cayeran a menos de US20 en abril de 2020 o que los precios del oro pasarían de US1.500 por onza a US1.760 en el mismo periodo?

¿Se atrevería alguien a pronosticar los precios del crudo, carbón y oro para la próxima semana?

No, es algo sencillamente imposible porque son muchas las variables que intervienen en la cotización de bienes primarios, desde la geoestrategia de las grandes potencias, hasta las guerras, amenazas, sanciones, conflictos regionales, anuncios de acuerdos en la OPEP, huracanes en altamar, una huelga en los puertos o el mal carácter de Mr Trump o un jeque árabe.

De ahí, la enorme volatibilidad de las cotizaciones de este tipo de bienes en el mercado internacional y las dificultades que existen en el mundo real para hacer cualquier tipo de proyección.

Entonces ¿cómo puede MINESA proyectar los precios del oro, plata u cobre para los próximos 21 años de operación? Y lo peor es que lo hacen proyectando series de precios históricos, desconociendo condicionantes relacionados con el cambio climático, transición a energías limpias y un cambio muy importante en los patrones de consumo de la humanidad, y que serán decisivos en el futuro a la hora de proyectar los precios de los minerales que alimentan el consumo suntuario. La verdad ese es un tema también de la bola de cristal.

Cálculo de los ingresos del Estado por impuestos y regalías

Para calcular los ingresos del Estado por impuestos y regalías, se deben calcular primero los ingresos operacionales de las compañías y los costos. Básicamente, los ingresos corresponden al producto de los volúmenes de minerales extraídos por los precios proyectados.

Pero como vimos antes, los volúmenes extraídos, que en buena parte se determinan a partir de las reservas estimadas y probables, y los precios proyectados, son variables del más allá, de la bola de cristal, del mundo de la especulación y la incertidumbre.

Debe agregarse que MINESA exportará concentrados polimetálicos, los cuales serán refinados fuera del país para extraer el oro, plata y cobre puros; la cantidad de cada unos de ellos dependerá de la información que entregue la compañía y el gobierno hará un nuevo acto de fe, porque no tendrá forma de fiscalizar un proceso lejos de sus fronteras y que es determinante para calcular los impuestos y las regalías.

Con las proyecciones de volumen, precios e ingresos, las empresas establecen la base gravable para efectos tributarios y sobre ella calculan el impuesto de renta que deberán pagar al gobierno; se trata de cifras astronómicas, pero que al final, además de especulativas, están enormemente menguadas por los numerosos beneficios tributarios que les permiten reducir el monto del impuesto de renta a pagar.

Recordemos que el sector minero colombiano, gracias a las prebendas tributarias, lograron reducir sus impuestos de una tasa nominal de 33% en 2018 a una tasa efectiva del 7,5%. El aporte por impuesto de renta del sector minero ascendió a $1,9 billones de pesos en el 2018 (cifras DIAN), apenas el 2,8% del recaudo total de las personas jurídicas.

Los mismo pasa con las regalías. La fórmula para determinar las regalías a pagar por parte de las empresas mineras es: volumen extraído (un acto de fe) x Precio Base Boca de Minas (PBBM) x la tarifa de la regalía.

De las tres variables utilizadas, una de ellas, la proyección del volumen de minerales extraído es incierta y el PBBM depende de los precios internacionales y su proyección es absolutamente especulativa.

Pero el verdadero problema, que Minesa no menciona, es que las empresas mineras deducen las regalías de su impuesto de renta y terminan haciéndole conejo al artículo 360 de la Constitución Nacional que señala que las regalía es una contraprestación por la explotación de los recursos naturales no renovables. Esta práctica fue prohibida por el Consejo de Estado  [1], pero las decisiones judiciales de las altas cortes “no tienen que ver con ellas”.

Entonces, cifras astronómicas, verdades a medias y discursos para atrapar bobos. Hacer fiestas sobre ingresos que dependen de proyecciones especulativas no es propio de personas sensatas.

[1. Consejo de Estado. Sala de lo Contencioso Administrativo. Octubre 2017. Declaratoria de nulidad concepto DIAN 015766.

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